Wherein we discuss Geekbox.net and individual episodes of our various podcasts.

The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Rydog » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 12:19am

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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 4:22am

Don't cry too hard for Nintendo Power. Sure it was a fond piece of some of our childhoods (not mine, fuck off with that shit) but the Wii U is going to sink Nintendo anyways, so they would have had to close up shop soon anyways.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby flufflogic » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 6:19am

What used to be Psygnosis, Sony Liverpool, just joined in the closures. Fucking awful day.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 8:54am

LiQuid wrote:Don't cry too hard for Nintendo Power. Sure it was a fond piece of some of our childhoods (not mine, fuck off with that shit) but the Wii U is going to sink Nintendo anyways, so they would have had to close up shop soon anyways.


Never change.

Other than the VirtualBoy, show me an unsuccessful Nintendo console.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 11:29am

Master Higgins wrote:
LiQuid wrote:Don't cry too hard for Nintendo Power. Sure it was a fond piece of some of our childhoods (not mine, fuck off with that shit) but the Wii U is going to sink Nintendo anyways, so they would have had to close up shop soon anyways.


Never change.

Other than the VirtualBoy, show me an unsuccessful Nintendo console.

Let's put aside the nebulous term "successful" here for a moment. You seem to be forgetting that the N64 and Gamecube sold for absolute shit. The Wii and DS were more or less the only successful Nintendo consoles since the original Gameboy and NES in that they sold bucketloads of units and dominated all competitors. I guess you could call the GBA a success but only because it had unchecked dominance in that market at that particular time. Every other console or handheld Nintendo has released has struggled for market share.

Look now at the poor performance of the 3DS and the impending disaster that will be the Wii U. After riding the high life on the coattails of the Wii and DS, Nintendo can't afford to take a giant step back on both their handheld and their home console. They've already taken their bath on the 3DS. The Wii U is going to take them through a car wash.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 12:17pm

LiQuid wrote:
Master Higgins wrote:
LiQuid wrote:Don't cry too hard for Nintendo Power. Sure it was a fond piece of some of our childhoods (not mine, fuck off with that shit) but the Wii U is going to sink Nintendo anyways, so they would have had to close up shop soon anyways.


Never change.

Other than the VirtualBoy, show me an unsuccessful Nintendo console.

Let's put aside the nebulous term "successful" here for a moment. You seem to be forgetting that the N64 and Gamecube sold for absolute shit. The Wii and DS were more or less the only successful Nintendo consoles since the original Gameboy and NES in that they sold bucketloads of units and dominated all competitors. I guess you could call the GBA a success but only because it had unchecked dominance in that market at that particular time. Every other console or handheld Nintendo has released has struggled for market share.

Look now at the poor performance of the 3DS and the impending disaster that will be the Wii U. After riding the high life on the coattails of the Wii and DS, Nintendo can't afford to take a giant step back on both their handheld and their home console. They've already taken their bath on the 3DS. The Wii U is going to take them through a car wash.


Failure on a Nintendo level is a wild success from just about any other company. The 3DS is selling amazingly well, and Wii-U will be huge. Stop hating.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 12:36pm

"Selling amazingly well" after they cut the price of the device NEARLY IN HALF and took a MASSIVE financial loss on it. I'm not hating. I don't give a fuck about Nintendo whether they succeed or fail since no matter what happens to their hardware division I'm sure GameFreak will still be crapping out a new Pokemon game every year. You're still being retarded. "Failure on a Nintendo level is a wild success from just about any other company" is fucking hysterical. Losses are losses, I don't care how deep your pockets are. In the time between the DS and the 3DS Nintendo's handheld division went from printing money to costing money, and that's a fact. That's a loss. That wouldn't be a success to just about any other company.

The Wii U, likewise, has failed to impress even the die hard Nintendobots and there's literally zero chance that it gets the same word of mouth, non-gamer support that the Wii did. Nintendo hit the soccer mom and nursing home markets with the Wii because of it's retard-simple input device. The Wii U controller is magnitudes more complicated than the Wiimote so it will NEVER have the same broad appeal. They are going to be losing a MASSIVE chunk of their market from the Wii to the Wii U, that's pretty much indisputable. The only chance the Wii U has to succeed is to start catering to gamers again, and it is failing to do even that with its reliance on gimmickry, outdated technical specs and its still-laughable third party support.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby kenzo » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 1:25pm

Hate! Hate! Hate! Hate! Hate!
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Konanda » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 1:44pm

Nothing is indisputable until it actually happens, especially so when speaking in such extremes. That said the below quote is a ridiculous statement.

Master Higgins wrote:Failure on a Nintendo level is a wild success from just about any other company.


Also keep in mind that a significant contributor to the loss was getting screwed on currency valuations.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 2:16pm

Konanda wrote:Nothing is indisputable until it actually happens, especially so when speaking in such extremes

So you think it's disputable that Nintendo won't retain a sizable portion of the Wii's current casual market? You think all 90 million people that own a Wii are going to run out and get a Wii U to replace it? Why do you consider this speaking in such extremes? The Wii indisputably reached well outside the boundaries of the established normal video game console market when it made its way into nursing homes and the evening news. If you think the Wii U has any chance of capturing the same lightning in a bottle that the Wii did you're a bigger fool than I could ever give you credit for...

If there's one thing that the Wii, and the Kinect and Zynga have taught us is that people that don't play video games will play video games if the barrier to entry is minimal to the near point of nonexistence. The Wii U doesn't have this luxury. It's a video game-ass video game console with one of the more convoluted input mechanisms since the advent of the original Playstation controller. The primary market of people that care about actual video games that Nintendo is releasing are 1. kids and 2. aspies and manbabies like Higgins that only care about the 5 games based on Nintendo's first party properties that will come out during the entire lifecycle of the console. Oprah isn't going to give two shits or a fuck about the Wii U.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby flufflogic » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 2:21pm

Fact: the current price for a preowned Wii in the UK is £38 - £2 less than a new release.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 2:54pm

LiQuid wrote:
Konanda wrote:Nothing is indisputable until it actually happens, especially so when speaking in such extremes

So you think it's disputable that Nintendo won't retain a sizable portion of the Wii's current casual market? You think all 90 million people that own a Wii are going to run out and get a Wii U to replace it? Why do you consider this speaking in such extremes? The Wii indisputably reached well outside the boundaries of the established normal video game console market when it made its way into nursing homes and the evening news. If you think the Wii U has any chance of capturing the same lightning in a bottle that the Wii did you're a bigger fool than I could ever give you credit for...

If there's one thing that the Wii, and the Kinect and Zynga have taught us is that people that don't play video games will play video games if the barrier to entry is minimal to the near point of nonexistence. The Wii U doesn't have this luxury. It's a video game-ass video game console with one of the more convoluted input mechanisms since the advent of the original Playstation controller. The primary market of people that care about actual video games that Nintendo is releasing are 1. kids and 2. aspies and manbabies like Higgins that only care about the 5 games based on Nintendo's first party properties that will come out during the entire lifecycle of the console. Oprah isn't going to give two shits or a fuck about the Wii U.


But does Nintendo need to sell 90 million copies? Haven't we heard time after time that the profit comes from games, not hardware?
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 3:49pm

Master Higgins wrote:But does Nintendo need to sell 90 million copies? Haven't we heard time after time that the profit comes from games, not hardware?

Take a look at the list of Wii games sold and if you make some deductions from that based on 1. games that were bundled in with hardware (Wii Sports, Wii Play), 2. games specifically targeted at Wii's large casual player base (Wii Fit, Guitar Hero) you see very few actually successful pieces of software. Sure stuff like Mario Kart and New SMB sold gangbusters at ~30 million copies total, but this is on an install base of 90+ million Wii's. Let's be generous and say lifetime the Wii U sells as many units as the N64 or GameCube did (a very generous 20-30 million units :lol: ) what do you think having 1/3rd the install base as the Wii is going to do for the rest of those big sellers when Nintendo rehashes them with a U in the title? How many copies of Mario Kart U are going to sell without the massive install base of casuals that just want to hold a dumb steering wheel in their hands and race around with their kids?

If the Wii hadn't had its casual friendly gimmick it would have sold for shit. In researching all this shit I was actually shocked to see the GameCube did as bad as it did with 20 million consoles sold. That's how much people don't give a fuck about Nintendo without the casual friendly gimmick. The GC had ALL the same rehashed bullshit as the N64 did and that the Wii has now, but it was just a regular ass video game console. No gimmick. No casual install base. Any success the Wii U has is going to be on the back of the Wii re-broadening Nintendo's brand name to where it was in the NES era, but that still won't be enough to retain a significant measure of the Wii's current userbase.

Now do I really think the Wii U is going to sink Nintendo? Probably not really, but I think it could be a huge wakeup call to them if they try to pull a 3DS and make it a dedicated gaming system with just another gimmick slapped on top. The only, and I mean ONLY saving grace the Wii could have is if they have some cutting fucking edge online infrastructure and are taking MASSIVE notes from Microsoft in turning the Wii into a set top box. I'm talking like full on replacement to cable television, and right now I don't think that's possible, even if you somehow managed to get free Netflix and Hulu and whatever other nonsense on there with your service. The internet as a la carte television still has way too many kinks that need ironing out for it to factor hugely in the console war, and thus far Nintendo hasn't done anything but position the Wii U as a game console.

Edit: I know it's tl;dr but I wanted to directly address your quote. We've heard from other companies that hardware sales usually factor less into a consoles profitability, especially with things now like subscription services and moneyhat deals with content creators, but this is the exact OPPOSITE for Nintendo. Nintendo has traditionally ALWAYS profited from their console sales over their software sales. I don't have a source to quote, but I'm pretty sure the 3DS, post-price drop, was the first time Nintendo started selling a console for less than its manufacture cost and we see what that did to them financially... This Wii U controller is going to be fucking expensive to produce, so if they pull the same shit with that and drop the price by $100+ 3 months after it comes out just to try and move some fucking units, they could be in a LOT of trouble.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Konanda » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 4:22pm

LiQuid wrote:
Konanda wrote:Nothing is indisputable until it actually happens, especially so when speaking in such extremes

So you think it's disputable that Nintendo won't retain a sizable portion of the Wii's current casual market? You think all 90 million people that own a Wii are going to run out and get a Wii U to replace it? Why do you consider this speaking in such extremes? The Wii indisputably reached well outside the boundaries of the established normal video game console market when it made its way into nursing homes and the evening news. If you think the Wii U has any chance of capturing the same lightning in a bottle that the Wii did you're a bigger fool than I could ever give you credit for...

If there's one thing that the Wii, and the Kinect and Zynga have taught us is that people that don't play video games will play video games if the barrier to entry is minimal to the near point of nonexistence. The Wii U doesn't have this luxury. It's a video game-ass video game console with one of the more convoluted input mechanisms since the advent of the original Playstation controller. The primary market of people that care about actual video games that Nintendo is releasing are 1. kids and 2. aspies and manbabies like Higgins that only care about the 5 games based on Nintendo's first party properties that will come out during the entire lifecycle of the console. Oprah isn't going to give two shits or a fuck about the Wii U.


By extremes I meant using adjectives like massive. (in all caps no less) I do not think that the Wii U will be as successful as the Wii was unless it has some gigantic marketing budget forcing it to be by sheer ad saturation. I also think they will not be able to capture the same marketshare but your beliefs that Nintendo is going to lose it all on the Wii U is ridiculously speculative. They won't be as successful but saying that it will be a massive failure/company ending is more than a little silly at this point in time when the product is not even on the market yet.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 4:45pm

I don't think using MASSIVE (in all caps no less) is overstating how big the dip is going to be from the Wii to the Wii U. If the Wii U manages to sell 60 million units (laughable), which is a little less than 2/3 the sales of the Wii and would put it about on par with the Xbox 360 and the PS3's lifetime sales, that would be a MASSIVE drop in user base from the Wii. I personally don't think it will even do 30 million lifetime just based on information we have now (largely that we don't know the price, but primarily because the thing looks like a gigantic piece of literal shit that came from someone's anus). Like I said before, do I really think this will sink Nintendo? Who knows? I'm not going to commit to that yet, but I don't think I'm speaking in extremes here. Wii U needs to be way more special than it seems to be now or Nintendo is going back to the bottom of the shit heap.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby harrypowers » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 7:49pm

Meanwhile, Snackerdoodle was kinda good. I bet Fitch has some cool snack ideas for that show. So, did anyone else listen to that podcast?
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Konanda » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 9:06pm

LiQuid wrote:I don't think using MASSIVE (in all caps no less) is overstating how big the dip is going to be from the Wii to the Wii U. If the Wii U manages to sell 60 million units (laughable), which is a little less than 2/3 the sales of the Wii and would put it about on par with the Xbox 360 and the PS3's lifetime sales, that would be a MASSIVE drop in user base from the Wii. I personally don't think it will even do 30 million lifetime just based on information we have now (largely that we don't know the price, but primarily because the thing looks like a gigantic piece of literal shit that came from someone's anus). Like I said before, do I really think this will sink Nintendo? Who knows? I'm not going to commit to that yet, but I don't think I'm speaking in extremes here. Wii U needs to be way more special than it seems to be now or Nintendo is going back to the bottom of the shit heap.


Hmm, that sounds like a reasonable perspective as opposed to your first post.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 9:26pm

Konanda wrote:
LiQuid wrote:I don't think using MASSIVE (in all caps no less) is overstating how big the dip is going to be from the Wii to the Wii U. If the Wii U manages to sell 60 million units (laughable), which is a little less than 2/3 the sales of the Wii and would put it about on par with the Xbox 360 and the PS3's lifetime sales, that would be a MASSIVE drop in user base from the Wii. I personally don't think it will even do 30 million lifetime just based on information we have now (largely that we don't know the price, but primarily because the thing looks like a gigantic piece of literal shit that came from someone's anus). Like I said before, do I really think this will sink Nintendo? Who knows? I'm not going to commit to that yet, but I don't think I'm speaking in extremes here. Wii U needs to be way more special than it seems to be now or Nintendo is going back to the bottom of the shit heap.


Hmm, that sounds like a reasonable perspective as opposed to your first post.


While I assume Nintendo will base the success of the Wii-U against the success of the Wii, it's not fair, and not applicable. I see this in comics all the time, where people try and say, "Well, Superman only sells 50,000 copies. Why, back in the 30's, it sold a million copies! Shut down DC!" With video games, from 2006 to now is a greatly different market; no iPad, no f2p, no moneyhats, etc, etc. I guarantee you the reason we don't have a PS4 and a 720 is because Sony and MS are shitting themselves trying to figure out how to make their consoles work. A reasonable company* cannot expect the same level of success with a new, costlier machine during one of the worst economic time of the 3 major markets (US, EU, JP) in the last century. I'd think a 30m unit sold Wii-U would be a wild success, assuming they're able to accept this, and not compare it to the Wii.

The 3DS is a failure? It was reported they're selling amazingly well, and even with the price drop, are not selling at a loss.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012- ... all-losses

Every Nintendo console has succeeded on the sales of their first party games, and I don't see this changing as time goes on. Every Nintendo console has been "successful", even the N64 and Gamecube.

*and this very well could be Nintendo, as we all know they're a bit out of touch
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby kenzo » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 10:36pm

Subsistence is not success, Higgins. To succeed is to flourish, not barely managing to stay alive. Superman is not successful, and neither was the Gamecube.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 10:59pm

Higgins: The reason there isn't an Xbox 720 and a PS4 is because:

1. The specs on the systems has been fine up until the last year or two when PCs have started to leap far enough ahead.

2. MS and Sony both have too much invested in trying to build support for their Nintendo-chasing gimmick nonsense.

They both will have no problem selling their next systems because they both have good online integration and useful secondary function (BRD player, set top box functionality, etc).
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 11:47pm

kenzo wrote:Subsistence is not success, Higgins. To succeed is to flourish, not barely managing to stay alive. Superman is not successful, and neither was the Gamecube.


That's just ridiculous.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 11:51pm

LiQuid wrote:Higgins: The reason there isn't an Xbox 720 and a PS4 is because:

1. The specs on the systems has been fine up until the last year or two when PCs have started to leap far enough ahead.

2. MS and Sony both have too much invested in trying to build support for their Nintendo-chasing gimmick nonsense.

They both will have no problem selling their next systems because they both have good online integration and useful secondary function (BRD player, set top box functionality, etc).


And Nintendo will have no trouble selling their next system because 30m people want to play Mario and Zelda.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 22nd, 2012 @ 11:57pm

I can't wait to come back to this thread in 10 years to see who's right! :roll:
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 23rd, 2012 @ 12:04am

Master Higgins wrote:And Nintendo will have no trouble selling their next system because 30m people want to play Mario and Zelda.

Did you check that link with the sales data? Actually only 5.8 million wanted to play Zelda on the Wii, and I'm sure a good majority of those were sold because there isn't fucking shit worth playing on the Wii. Hell I bought one and never played it. I'd wager it's more like 3 million people want to play Zelda.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby flufflogic » Aug 23rd, 2012 @ 3:46am

And look at the backlash to NSMB2. Sure, selling well in Japan - but reviewers have pointed out how little has changed, how it feels like a mere level pack, and the coin collecting theme is poor. We'll see how the DLC fares, but there's a wind change in the public's view of them, again.

Anecdotally, I know nobody who still owns their Wii and buys games for it. Ours is gone, all our friends got rid of theirs ages ago (typically for PS3s so they could watch Blu-Rays), and the only Wii still around belongs to my wife's 12 year old cousin who uses it to play Just Dance, and rarely. That's out of... (quick count) 8 I know. Like I said, a Wii over here can now be bought for less than a game.

It was a bubble, a very cleaver one, but I can't see many people doing it twice. My kids don't want one even, and that surprised me. My son said it looks bulky and the games are the same, and my daughter just assumed it was what we already had with a new controller.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 23rd, 2012 @ 8:34am

And now you know someone who plays it on a pretty regular basis, and owns more games for it than PS3 and 360 combined.

I totally agree that the Wii was a fluke, and Nintendo has to know that as well. I'm not saying they're not gonna freak out when it doesn't live up to the Wii's sales, I'm just saying they shouldn't. Through E3 and other interviews I've read, they seem pretty aware of the poor sales of 3rd party games, and are trying to catch up with current gen and a bit beyond for more 3rd party support. Maybe we'll see an updated Wii-U in 2 years to play 720/PS4 style games, who knows. They sure update the DS often enough, I could see them trying the same with with the Wii-U.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 23rd, 2012 @ 8:36am

LiQuid wrote:
Master Higgins wrote:And Nintendo will have no trouble selling their next system because 30m people want to play Mario and Zelda.

Did you check that link with the sales data? Actually only 5.8 million wanted to play Zelda on the Wii, and I'm sure a good majority of those were sold because there isn't fucking shit worth playing on the Wii. Hell I bought one and never played it. I'd wager it's more like 3 million people want to play Zelda.


Then 25m people want to play Mario :D

Honestly, do you think the 720 and PS4 will sell anywhere near what the 360 and PS3 sold? The 360 was the first of the new gen, and a huge jump forward in tech. The PS3 sold like gangbusters after the price drop because it's a really good bluray player (for the time/price). I don't see the next series selling even half of what these ones sold, and Nintento knows it's in the same position.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby Master Higgins » Aug 23rd, 2012 @ 8:40am

Here, Nintendo isn't that stupid after all:

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2012/0 ... les_target

They're clearly aware of the current market, and are planning accordingly. A success is not always a match-or-exceed previous sales number.
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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby gavv » Aug 23rd, 2012 @ 9:16am

You guys were skewing too young on the Expenda-belles talk, need to pull some more from the 80s class of 'actionettes' like Brigitte Neilsen & Cynthia Rothrock

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Re: The Geekbox: Episode 182

Postby LiQuid » Aug 23rd, 2012 @ 10:58am

Master Higgins wrote:Honestly, do you think the 720 and PS4 will sell anywhere near what the 360 and PS3 sold? The 360 was the first of the new gen, and a huge jump forward in tech. The PS3 sold like gangbusters after the price drop because it's a really good bluray player (for the time/price). I don't see the next series selling even half of what these ones sold, and Nintento knows it's in the same position.

MS and Sony's market hasn't gone anywhere. Their sales right now aren't due to a bubble. The amount of people that still want a dedicated game console hooked up to their TV to play video games (as well as use it for Netflix and whatever else now) is still just as large as ever. I'm not even just talking about the Call of Duty/Madden crowd. Game consoles are still a good, viable alternative to having a full on gaming PC.

Your assumptions about the sales of the 360 and PS3 are also patently ridiculous. When the 360 came out it was pretty highly criticized for NOT being a big enough leap forward from the original Xbox. You would see articles like this popping up as often as PS3 Vs. 360 side by side comparisons do now. The 360 did sell well because it was the most affordable next generation console and people want to play next generation video games.

The PS3's sales finally took off after Sony reigned the damn thing in from a ridiculously costly piece of bloatware that "did everything" into just a current gen game console that played Blue Rays (what it should have been from the start) and adjusted the price accordingly.

Neither of those consoles sales are due to any kind of chicanery or inflated sense of presence in the marketplace.

Master Higgins wrote:And now you know someone who plays it on a pretty regular basis, and owns more games for it than PS3 and 360 combined.

You have to know that you're an outlier here. You're not exactly the model "gamer" either. You've said yourself that gaming is only a secondary hobby for you. If you listen to any gaming podcasts you'd know that the Wii has kind of been the joke of this generation. People that have them never play them. When a new game comes out for Wii, WITHOUT FAIL, people make comments about how they had to dust it off.
LiQuid
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